
By Dr. Babatope Ogunniyi
Department of Economics, University of Lagos.
Introduction:
Industrial Revolution Defined:
The Industrial Revolution is one of the most celebrated turning points in human history. The revolution was as result of economic expansion that started in the sixteenth century. Nevertheless, the eighteenth century does represent a decisive break in the history of technology and the economy. The famous inventions–the spinning jenny, the steam engine, coke smelting, and so forth–deserve their renown, for they mark the start of a process that has carried the West, at least, to the mass prosperity of the twenty-first century.
Industrial revolution is a long standing problem in social science, and all manner of prior events have been adduced as causes (Hartwell 1967, Mokyr 1999). The role of political structure–parliamentary checks on the executive, the security of property rights, and the flexibility of the legal system – all attest to new age debate. Essentially, the dramatic changes of the late eighteenth century can be traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688 that consolidated parliamentary ascendancy, minimal government, and secure property rights. Supposedly, these legal changes created a favourable climate for investment that made the industrial revolution possible (North and Weingast1989, De Long and Schleifer 1993, LaPorta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Schleifer, Vishny 1998, Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson 2005).
Industrial Revolution, in modern history, confirms the process of change from an agrarian and handicraft economy to one dominated by industry and machine manufacturing. This process began in Britain in the 18th century and from there spread to other parts of the world. The main features involved in the Industrial Revolution were technological, socioeconomic, and cultural. The technological changes include the following:
(1) the use of new basic materials, chiefly iron and steel,
(2) the use of new energy sources, including both fuels and motive power, such as coal, the steam engine, petroleum, and the internal-combustion engine,
(3) the invention of new machines, such as the spinning jenny and the power loom that permitted increased production with a smaller expenditure of human energy,
(4) a new organization of work known as the factory system, which entailed increased division of labour and specialization of function,
(5) important developments in transportation and communication, including the steam locomotive, steamship, automobile, airplane, telegraph, and radio, and
(6) the increasing application of science to industry. These technological changes made possible a tremendously increased use of natural resources and the mass production of manufactured goods.
These technological changes were spelt by the following stages, many are distinct and some overlapping:
Generations (Stages) of Industrial Revolution:
The first industrial revolution – 1765
Following a slow period of primitive (proto-industrialization), this first revolution spans from the end of the 18th century to the beginning of the 19th century. It witnessed the emergence of mechanization, a process that replaced agriculture with industry as the foundations of the economic structure of society. Mass extraction of coal; the invention of the steam engine; the development of railroads and the acceleration of economic, human and material exchanges. Other major inventions such as forging and new technological know-how in metal shaping gradually drew up the blueprints for the first factories and cities across Europe.
The second industrial revolution – 1870
The second industrial revolution evolved about a century after the first one, precisely towards the end of the 19th century, new technological advancements initiated the emergence of a new source of energy: especially electricity, gas and oil. As a result, the development of the combustion engine set out to use these new resources to their full potential, the steel industry began to develop; Chemical synthesis also developed to bring us synthetic fabric, dyes and fertilizer. Methods of communication were also revolutionized with the invention of the telegraph and the telephone and so were transportation methods with the emergence of the automobile and the plane at the beginning of the 20th century.
The third industrial revolution – 1969
At about a century later, in the second half of the 20th century, a third industrial revolution appeared with the emergence of a new type of energy whose potential surpassed its predecessors: nuclear energy. This revolution witnessed the rise of electronics (with the transistor and microprocessor) as well as the rise of telecommunications and computers, which open doors, most notably to space research and biotechnology. For industry, this revolution gave rise to the era of high-level automation in production thanks to two major inventions: automatons known as programmable logic controllers (PLCs) and robots.
In summary, the first industrial revolution used water and steam to mechanize production, the second used electric energy to create mass production and the third used electronics and information technology to automate production. Today a fourth industrial revolution is here with us that build upon the third revolution and the digital revolution that has been taking place since the middle of the last century.
The fourth industrial revolution [Industry 4.0]
It is rooted in a new technological phenomenon (digitalization) rather than in the emergence of a new type of energy. This digitalization enables us to build a new virtual world from which we can steer the physical world.
Connectivity of industry of today and tomorrow is aimed at production at its real time. Industry 4.0 makes communication among the different players and connected objects in a production line possible, technology such as Cloud, Big Data Analytics and the Industrial Internet revolution are imaginable. Already we are seeing our tomorrow being embedded in smart cities and powered by wind, sun and geothermal energy.
The possibilities of billions of people connected by mobile devices, with unprecedented processing power, storage capacity, and access to knowledge, are unlimited. All these prospects have shown breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and quantum computing and many more.
Challenges and opportunities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Adjudging from an economic sense, the Fourth Industrial Revolution has the potential to raise global income levels and improve the quality of life for populations around the world.
Presently, world consumers of the new technology are beneficiaries due to access to the digital world; technology has made possible new products and services that increase the efficiency and pleasure to their personal lives. Ordering a cab, booking a flight, buying a product, making a payment, listening to music, watching a film, or playing a game, invariably all the above can now be done remotely.
It is expected that technological innovation will also lead to a supply-side miracle, with long-term gains in efficiency and productivity. Transportation and communication costs will drop, logistics and global supply chains will become more effective, and the cost of trade will diminish, all of which will open new markets and drive economic growth.
At the same time, the revolution would certainly disrupt the labour market which will lead to inequality. As automation substitutes for labour across the entire economy, the net displacement of workers by machines might exacerbate the gap between returns to capital and returns to labour. Conversely, the displacement of workers by technology may, in aggregate, result in a net increase in safe and rewarding jobs.
Technology is one of the main reasons why incomes have stagnated, or even decreased, for a majority of the population in high-income countries: the demand for highly skilled workers has increased while the demand for workers with less education and lower skills has decreased. The result is a job market with a strong demand at the high and low ends, but an excluded middle.
This explains why so many workers are disillusioned and fearful that their own real incomes and those of their coming generations will continue to stagnate. It also helps explain why middle classes around the world are increasingly experiencing a pervasive sense of dissatisfaction and unfairness. A winner-takes-all economy that offers only limited access to the middle class is a recipe for democratic malaise and dereliction.
Discontent can also be fueled by the pervasiveness of digital technologies and the dynamics of information sharing typified by social media. More than 30 percent of the global population now uses social media platforms to connect, learn, and share information. In an ideal world, these interactions would provide an opportunity for cross-cultural understanding and cohesion.
The impact on business
For global Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and senior business executives, the acceleration of innovation and the velocity of disruption are hard to comprehend or anticipate and that these drivers constitute a source of constant surprise, even for the best connected and most well informed. Indeed, across all industries, there is clear evidence that the technologies that underpin the Fourth Industrial Revolution are having a major impact on businesses.
On the supply side, new technologies that create entirely new ways of serving existing needs and significantly disrupt existing industry value chains. Disruption is also flowing from agile, innovative competitors, who have built more on research, development, marketing, sales, and distribution, are beginning to oust well-established incumbents faster than ever in terms quality, speed, or price at which value is delivered.
Demand side are also occurring with growing transparency, consumer engagement, and new patterns of consumer behavior has tremendously forced companies to adapt the way they design, market, and deliver products and services.
On the whole, there are four main effects that the Fourth Industrial Revolution has on business—on customer expectations, on product enhancement, on collaborative innovation, and on organizational forms.
Overall, the inexorable shift from simple digitization (the Third Industrial Revolution) to innovation based on combinations of technologies (the Fourth Industrial Revolution) is forcing companies to reexamine the way they do business. The bottom line, however, is the same: business leaders and senior executives need to understand their changing environment, challenge the assumptions of their operating teams, and relentlessly and continuously innovate.
The impact on government
New technologies and platforms have increasingly enable citizens to engage with governments, voice their opinions, coordinate their efforts, and even circumvent the supervision of public authorities. Concurrently, governments stand to gain new technological powers to increase their control over populations, based on pervasive surveillance systems and the ability to control digital infrastructure. On the whole, however, governments will increasingly face pressure to change their current approach to public engagement and policymaking, as their central role of conducting policy diminishes owing to new sources of competition and the redistribution and decentralization of power that new technologies make possible.
The governments can no longer short change on the levels of transparency and efficiency with agile governance. The second Industrial revolution was designed to be linear and mechanistic, following a strict “top down” approach. But such an approach is no longer feasible.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution will also profoundly impact the nature of national and international security, affecting both the probability and the nature of conflict. The history of warfare and international security is sine-qua-nom to the history of technological innovation, even up till date. Hence, modern conflicts involving states are increasingly “hybrid” in nature, combining traditional battlefield techniques with elements previously associated with non-state actors. The difference between war and peace, combatant and noncombatant, and even violence and nonviolence (think cyber-warfare) is becoming uncomfortably blurry. This new vulnerability will lead to new fears. But at the same time, advances in technology will create the potential to reduce the scale or impact of violence, through the development of new modes of protection, for example, or greater precision in targeting, Nigeria experience on Boko Haram is an eye-opener.
The impact on people
The Fourth Industrial Revolution, finally, will change not only what we do but also who we are. It will affect our identity and all the issues associated with it: our sense of privacy, our notions of ownership, our consumption patterns, the time we devote to work and leisure, and how we develop our careers, cultivate our skills, meet people, and nurture relationships. Human augmentation is on its course.
Inexorable integration of technology in our lives could diminish some of our quintessential human capacities; our constant connection to phone may deprive us of life’s most important asset: time. New information technologies are a great challenge to our privacy. The tracking and sharing of information about us is a crucial part of the new connectivity, unfortunately we are fed with information that is good, bad and ugly. Biotechnology and Artificial Intelligence (AI), which are redefining what it means to be human by pushing back the current thresholds of life span, health, cognition, and capabilities, will compel us to redefine our moral and ethical boundaries.
Shaping the future
These new technologies and the disruption that comes with it are not beyond our control. Essentially, all of us are responsible for guiding its evolution, in the decisions we make on a daily basis as citizens, consumers, and investors. We should thus grasp the opportunity and power we have to shape the Industry 4.0 and direct it toward a future that reflects our common objectives and values.
Developing economies, in particular Nigeria, must develop a comprehensive and globally shared view of how technology is affecting our lives and reshaping our economic, social, cultural, and human environments. There has never been a time of greater promise, or one of greater potential peril. Our policy makers, however, are too often trapped in traditional, linear thinking, or too absorbed by the multiple crises demanding their attention, to think strategically about the forces of disruption and innovation shaping our future.
In the end, it all comes down to people and values. We need to shape a future that works for all of us by putting people first and empowering them. In its most pessimistic, dehumanized form, the Fourth Industrial Revolution may indeed have the potential to “robotize” humanity and thus to deprive us of our heart and soul. But as a complement to the best parts of human nature—creativity, empathy, stewardship—it can also lift humanity into a new collective and moral consciousness based on a shared sense of destiny. It is incumbent on us all to make sure the latter prevails.
Major Challenges in the 4th industrial revolution in Nigeria
The 4th industrial revolution is not without its challenges. In Europe for example, the need for investment, changing business models, data issues, legal questions of liability and intellectual property, standards, and skills mismatches were identified as some of the significant challenges of Industry 4.0 (European Parliament, 2016). In Germany, societal challenges such as job loss, disqualification, new kinds of stress and increased social insecurity have also taken center stage in their industry 4.0 strategies (Dredger, Niehaus, Ittermann, Hirsch- Kreinsen & ten Hompel, 2016). For a developing economy of ours, some of these challenges are discussed below:
Potential job loses
4th industrial revolution has renewed fears of massive job losses. According to the World Economic Forum (2016), “many of the major drivers of transformation currently affecting global industries are expected to have a significant impact on jobs, ranging from significant job creation to job displacement, and from heightened labour productivity to widening skills gaps.” In developing countries, like Nigeria, these fears are exacerbated by the fact that governments are already struggling to curb a high unemployment rate. In Nigeria, this is a severe blow considering the country is struggling with a high unemployment rate of 23.1 % according to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, 2018.
Skills challenges
Skills, innovation systems, and knowledge communities provide the much needed intellectual guidance in the development and implementation of smart and digital initiatives (Abdoullaev, 2011; Scholl & Scholl, 2014). E-readiness (e-skills and e-literacy) have also been identified as fundamental in the success of the so-called smart society (Manda & Backhouse, 2016b). Skills challenges identified include skills mismatches and skills redundancy (otherwise known as Structural Unemployment) due to the changing nature of jobs as a result of advances in technology and manufacturing techniques. (World Economic Forum, 2016). Moreover, the e-readiness (e-literacy and e-skills) influence the citizens’ ability to fully participate in social and economic activities in the smart society (Manda & Backhouse, 2016b). Low e-readiness levels in developing countries like Nigeria is a hindrance in the transformation towards smart societies (Ngulube, 2007; Manda & Backhouse, 2016b).
Infrastructure challenges
Developing countries are not only confronted by societal challenges but technological and infrastructure challenges. Poor ICT infrastructure in developing countries is thus one of the major challenges likely to confront governments in their bid to implement industry 4.0. In Nigeria and many sub-Saharan nations, poor broadband penetration was found to be one of the barriers hindering transformation to the so-called smart society driven by digital connectivity, advanced technology, skills, knowledge, and innovation to institute economic and social development (Manda & Backhouse, 2016b).
Security and privacy
Security and data privacy issues have arguably become one of the most significant concerns in the 4th industrial revolution where technology has become a driver (Waidner & Kasper, 2016).
Integration of systems in the 4th industrial revolution requires the development of new security and protection mechanisms for the faster and more flexible collaborative value networks and smart production systems (Waidner & Kasper, 2016). The increased use of data analytics is also likely going to bring new challenges when it comes to issues of data privacy and protection, cyber crimes and the like, (Waidner & Kasper, 2016). Moreover, privacy and security concerns in technology bring with it trust issues in the “smart” era (Manda & Backhouse, 2016a).
In summary the fourth industrial revolution is characterized by: Disruption of jobs and skills; Innovation and Productivity; Inequality; Agile Governance; Security and Conflict; Business Disruption; Fusing Technologies; Ethics and Identity.
Drivers of the 4th industrial revolution
The successful adoption of the 4th industrial revolution will rely on the ability of governments, business and citizens to commit in supporting the transformation of society into a modern and smart society driven by advanced technology, skills, innovation and responsive policy.
- Information and Communication infrastructure and emerging technologies
Increasing inequalities in most developing countries like Nigeria is a concern in the 4th industrial revolution where digital access and inclusion have become critical. Nigeria remains one of the unequal societies in the world. The digital driven 4th industrial is likely to increase those inequalities if governments fail to address the inequalities. Technology is one of the critical drivers of the 4th industrial revolution. Technologies such as cloud computing, the internet are the Drivers of the 4th industrial revolution. Telecommunication technologies and infrastructure such as broadband and other internet technologies provide digital connectivity for effective communication, collaboration and integration of people, systems and machines. Data analytics are an important technology for gaining more insights from the data so as to better understand customer preferences, changing market conditions, trends and for enhancing production efficiency (World Economic Forum, 2016).
- Education and training
Nigeria’s failing education system has impacted its global competitiveness. The 4th industrial revolution is projected to bring disruptive changes to the labour market. Demand for highly skilled labour is projected to increase. The digital transformation and innovations in the 4th industrial revolution demand a new breed of worker, one that is skilled, innovative and technological savvy (Manda & Backhouse, 2017). This has led to a call for the need to focus on developing the so-called “future skills,” some which don’t exist now. The ability to anticipate and prepare for future skills requirements, job content and the aggregate effect on employment is increasingly critical for businesses, governments and individuals in order to fully seize the opportunities presented by these trends and to mitigate undesirable outcomes. This can only happen if the Nigeria government can make education accessible, due parity and relevant.
- Innovation
Africa needs to harness the opportunities in the digital age by learning to create its own technology instead of being consumers of foreign technology. Industry 4.0 will demand the production of innovative products, business models and production techniques driven by technology. This calls for the need to invest more in research and development. Research and development would thus become increasingly important as a driver of innovation in the 4th industrial revolution. With an increasing emphasis on sustainability and inclusive growth, strategies that will sufficiently benefit society or address human and developmental challenges (Buhr, 2016). This is especially important in developing countries that are confronted by a myriad of human and social challenges that require governments to come up with innovative ways of addressing them.
- Policy innovation
Innovative policy and legislative reforms are important for supporting digital transformation. They allow governments to put in place measures and resources in response to the challenges and opportunities brought by the digital earth (Dawes, Cresswell & Pardo, 2009; Cordella & Lannacci, 2010; Lips, O’Neil & Eppel, 2011; Fan, Zheng & Yen, 2014; Scholl & Scholl, 2014;). Innovations in the 4th industrial revolution would bring new challenges such as trade restrictions (Nigeria border closure), security of enterprise data, liability issues and personal data privacy which demand strict regulation through standards, legislation, and policies (Zhou & Zhou, 2015). Policy plays an important role in governing the largely complex smart environment (Scholl & Scholl, 2014).
- Responsive and context-specific strategies
Government must introduce strategies and provide clear guidelines on its mode of operations to the demands of the digital, connected and smart environment. The need for context-specific strategies especially in developing countries cannot be overemphasized. The challenge is not the absence of strategies, rather the failure of strategies to respond to the local context (Ndou, 2004; Irani, 2005; Chen, Chen, Huang, & Ching, 2006; Majdalawi, Talmarabeh, Mohammad & Quteshate, 2015). The failure to adapt the so-called “best practices” to the local context often results in poorly conceptualized strategies (Manda &Backhouse, 2016b).
CONCLUSION
The success of the 4th industrial revolution will depend on leadership from all sectors working together to leverage the opportunities and address the challenges of the 4th industrial revolution.
- Political leadership should be responsible for developing and implementing an enabling environment for digital transformation and innovation.
- Business leadership should be responsible for leading think tanks and the much-needed innovation.
- Social leadership also plays an important role in preparing society for the changes.
However, Political leadership in Nigeria has recognized the 4th industrial revolution and its potential to address the countries triple challenges of poverty, unemployment/inequality and insecurity. The development of policies and strategies addressing digital transformation is a sign of commitment from leadership.
The implementation of reforms remains a major challenge as witnessed by poor policy implementation in Africa in general and Nigeria in particular. In recent years, the government and business leaders are yet to find a common level for advancement; this has great impeded the much needed cooperation in preparation for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. A level playing ground with trusting relations and cohesion will surely advance this course, where the interests of all are protected.
Collaboration is critical during transformation or change. Collaboration between the various actors in the 4th industrial revolution is critical in ensuring the success of the 4th industrial revolution which will not only disrupt business but government and society. The development of policies and strategies that are responsive to the priorities of Nigeria will require that government works with business and social partners in addressing some of the challenges and leveraging the opportunities brought by the 4th industrial revolution. The introduction of robotics in advanced manufacturing for instance will require that government, business, workers and labor unions collaborate in coming up with strategies to mitigate the risk of massive job losses that will further deepen unemployment, poverty, and inequalities. The current social, political and economic environment has created mistrust and weakened cohesion. Self-interest behavior and corruption in the development and implementation of policy reforms is of great concern in Nigeria.
The 4th industrial revolution requires developing countries like Nigeria to rise to the challenges brought by their cultural, religion, socio-economic and economic contexts. Developing countries need to develop models or strategies that are responsive and relevant to their context instead of blindly adopting so-called “exemplary models” that have worked in contexts that are
different to the developing country adopting them.
Socio-economic challenges such as potential job losses, widening wage gaps and skills redundancy will require government to develop strategies that bring social benefits instead of focusing primarily on economic prospects brought by the 4th industrial revolution. The government should also explain how social innovations in industry 4.0 can address some of society’s challenges and improve the quality of life and social well-being of citizens. Finally, “We need to evolve in terms of leveraging on technology so that we can compete with countries like India and China where technology has made tremendous impact on their economy,” (Adeyemi 2019).
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Industrial Revolution: factory workers Women working machines at the American Woolen Company, Boston, c. 1912. ( Library of Congress, Washington, D.C. (cph 3c22840))
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