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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released Nigeria’s half year 2018 GDP figure, showing that the domestic economy expanded for the fifth consecutive quarter, with real GDP growing by 1.50 percent year on year as against 1.95 percent year on year in the previous quarter and 0.72 percent year on year in second quarter of 2017.
The growth estimate came in 46 bps and 120 bps lower than Bloomberg’s compiled average estimate of 1.96 percent and Cordros’ forecast of 2.70 percent respectively. A quick look at the breakdown of the GDP figure shows that the oil sector contracted by 3.95 percent compared to growth of 14.77 percent in first quarter of and 3.53 percent.
The NBS estimated crude oil production during the three months period to be 1.84mb/d, 0.16mb/d and 0.03mb/d lower than the 2.0mb/d and 1.87mb/d reported in first quarter of and second quarter of 2017. The sector contributed 8.55 percent of total GDP against 9.61 percent and 9.04 percent in first quarter of 2018 and the corresponding quarter of 2017 respectively during the review period.
Output in the non-oil sector expanded, growing by 2.05 percent year on year in second quarter of 129bps higher than the rate recorded in first quarter of 2018 and 59 bps higher when compared to the growth rate achieved a year ago. The non-oil sector contributed 91.45 percent to total GDP as against 90.39 percent and 90.96 percent in the three months to March 2018 and second quarter of 2017 respectively.
A breakdown of three of the biggest components of the GDP shows that Services expanded by 2.12 percent year on year against -0.47 percent year on year in first quarter of 2018 and -0.85 percent year on year in second quarter of 2017. Also, Agriculture grew by 1.19 percent year on year, 181 bps and 182 bps lower than growth rates recorded in first quarter of 2018 and second quarter of 2017 respectively.
Manufacturing grew by 0.68 percent year on year 271 bps lower and 4 bps higher than growth rates recorded in first quarter of 2018 and second quarter of 2017 respectively. In terms of contribution, services, industries, and agriculture, respectively, accounted for 54.0 percent, 23.2 percent, and 22.9 percent of overall output growth.
Photo Caption: Dr Yemi Kale Statistician General
